4. DETERMINING EFFECT OF A SINGLE VARIABLE
                                       
 
EDUCATION VS. SMOKING
    Eight Rules

1. False Precision

2. Base Rate Fallacy

3. Correlation Not Causation

5. Substantial Differences

6. Longitudinal Study

7. Different From Chance

8. Dose-Response
LESS THAN HIGH SCHOOL 24.7%  
There is clearly a correlation between smoking, education, and economic status.

So if we want to determine the health effects of smoking, we have to account for the other factors.

We can account for them by calculating their effects, or removing them when possible.
 
GED 41.9%
HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE 23.1%
SOME COLLEGE 20.9%
ASSOCIATE DEGREE 17.9%
UNDERGRADUATE DEGREE   9.1%
POSTGRADUATE DEGREE   5.9%
BELOW POVERTY LEVEL 27.9%
AT/ABOVE POVERTY LEVEL 17.0%
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FACTORS AFFECTING LIFE EXPECTANCY

  More intelligent   ---- likely ---->     to be more educated  
  More educated   ---- likely ----> More spendable income    
  More spendable income   ---- likely ----> to have better healthcare  
  More educated   ---- likely ----> to have better healthcare  
  More intelligent   ---- likely ---->     to smoke less  
  More educated   ---- likely ---->     to smoke less  
  Better health care   ---- likely ---->     to smoke less  
  Smoke less   ---- likely ----> More spendable income  
  Smoke less   ---- likely ---->     to live longer  
  More intelligent   ---- likely ---->     to live longer  
  More educated   ---- likely ---->     to live longer  
  More spendable income   ---- likely ---->     to live longer  
  Better health care   ---- likely ---->     to live longer  
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