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Eight Rules
1. False Precision 2. Base Rate Fallacy 3. Correlation Not Causation 5. Substantial Differences 6. Longitudinal Study 7. Different From Chance 8. Dose-Response |
LESS THAN HIGH SCHOOL | 24.7% |
There is clearly a correlation between smoking, education, and economic status. So if we want to determine the health effects of smoking, we have to account for the other factors. We can account for them by calculating their effects, or removing them when possible. |
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GED | 41.9% | |||||||||||||||||||
HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE | 23.1% | |||||||||||||||||||
SOME COLLEGE | 20.9% | |||||||||||||||||||
ASSOCIATE DEGREE | 17.9% | |||||||||||||||||||
UNDERGRADUATE DEGREE | 9.1% | |||||||||||||||||||
POSTGRADUATE DEGREE | 5.9% | |||||||||||||||||||
BELOW POVERTY LEVEL | 27.9% | |||||||||||||||||||
AT/ABOVE POVERTY LEVEL | 17.0% | |||||||||||||||||||
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More intelligent | ---- likely ----> | to be more educated | ||||||||||||||||||
More educated | ---- likely ----> | More spendable income | ||||||||||||||||||
More spendable income | ---- likely ----> | to have better healthcare | ||||||||||||||||||
More educated | ---- likely ----> | to have better healthcare | ||||||||||||||||||
More intelligent | ---- likely ----> | to smoke less | ||||||||||||||||||
More educated | ---- likely ----> | to smoke less | ||||||||||||||||||
Better health care | ---- likely ----> | to smoke less | ||||||||||||||||||
Smoke less | ---- likely ----> | More spendable income | ||||||||||||||||||
Smoke less | ---- likely ----> | to live longer | ||||||||||||||||||
More intelligent | ---- likely ----> | to live longer | ||||||||||||||||||
More educated | ---- likely ----> | to live longer | ||||||||||||||||||
More spendable income | ---- likely ----> | to live longer | ||||||||||||||||||
Better health care | ---- likely ----> | to live longer | ||||||||||||||||||
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